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Analyst: The current BTC rally is benefiting from reduced selling pressure, but a push to $100,000 will face selling from short-term holders
BlockBeats News, January 6th, CryptoQuant analyst Axel posted on social media, stating that the current state reflects suppressed selling pressure from a key group (short-term holders) and no clear demand confirmation. The key deteriorating trigger point is the SMA continuously below the zero axis, which would signal a transition to the distribution range.
Short-Term Holder Realized Price (STH Realized Price) refers to the average acquisition cost of holders with a holding period of less than 155 days. The BTC price is currently trading below this price, indicating that the average short-term holder is at a loss. The short-term holders being "underwater" limit the profit-taking potential of this group, with the $100,000 level acting as local resistance. This currently reduces selling pressure and explains why, despite price corrections, the oscillators can still maintain within an accumulation range where selling pressure is suppressed. Once the price touches $100,000 and this group returns to breakeven, short-term holders will start selling, creating price pressure. A key confirmation signal of a strong market is the price closing above the short-term holder realized price.
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