Bitcoin unsure as recession looms, US-China tariff talks kick off
By: cryptosheadlines|2025/05/02 22:30:02
0
Share
Airdrop Is Live CaryptosHeadlines Media Has Launched Its Native Token CHT. Airdrop Is Live For Everyone, Claim Instant 5000 CHT Tokens Worth Of $50 USDT. Join the Airdrop at the official website, CryptosHeadlinesToken.com Bitcoin’s recovery to its all-time high may be threatened by rising recession fears, which could ease if the United States and China begin tariff negotiations this month, research analysts told Cointelegraph.Appetite for global risk assets such as Bitcoin (BTC) may take another hit, with analysts from Apollo Global Management predicting a recession by the summer.“Apollo predicting Summer Recession: Sharpest decline in earnings outlook since 2020,” cross-asset analyst Samantha LaDuc wrote in an April 26 X post.The progress on the tariff negotiations may be the most significant factor impacting a potential recession and Bitcoin’s price trajectory, according to Aurelie Barthere, principal research analyst at crypto intelligence platform Nansen.Source: Samantha LaDuc“May is seen as pivotal as Chinese shipments reach the US’s shores, and exemptions on some tariff categories such as auto parts and sub-USD-800 shipments from China/ Hong Kong expire,” Barthere told Cointelegraph, adding that a lack of negotiations in May could lead to an economic recession and “double-digit losses” for Bitcoin.However, this is the least likely scenario, since neither China nor the US “ has an economic interest in the interruption of bilateral trade,” Barthere said, adding:“Given this, the main tariff scenario is for the US reaching deals or at least ‘agreements in principle’ with its main trade partners, probably settling around the 10% reciprocal tariff ‘floor’.”If that scenario plays out and trade tensions ease in May, Bitcoin is likely to revisit its all-time high, Barthere said. The US has “proactively reached out to China through multiple channels,” for signaling its openness for tariff negotiations, Reuters reported on May 1, citing unnamed sources who spoke to state-affiliated Chinese media platform Yuyuan Tantian.Related: Bitcoin treasury firms driving $200T hyperbitcoinization — Adam BackBitcoin may rally despite recessionWhile most analysts hope to see trade negotiations in May alleviate economic concerns, Bitcoin may see more upside even in the face of a potential recession.“Initially, Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies may experience volatility, dropping alongside risk assets like stocks due to investor sell-offs,” Anndy Lian, author and intergovernmental blockchain adviser, told Cointelegraph, adding:“Historical data, such as Bitcoin’s recovery post-2020 recession, suggests it could rebound, especially if seen as a hedge against inflation.”“In stagflation (high inflation and slow growth), Bitcoin, often compared to gold, may perform well, attracting investors seeking value preservation. Yet, its increased correlation with the stock market, particularly tech stocks, introduces uncertainty,” said Lian, adding that crypto investors should continue monitoring economic policy shifts to gauge market direction.BTC/USD, 1-week chart, 2020-2021. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewHowever, Bitcoin’s increasing correlation with tech stocks adds uncertainty to that outlook. Following the COVID-19 crash in March 2020, Bitcoin surged more than 1,050%, climbing from $6,000 to an all-time high of $69,000 in November 2021. That rally came after the Federal Reserve launched its $4 trillion asset purchase program in March 2020.Related: Bitcoin to $1M by 2029 fueled by ETF and gov’t demand — Bitwise execOther industry watchers remain concerned by the crypto market’s response to economic stagnation.“If the analysts are correct about the recession (which is certainly not guaranteed), crypto markets will likely decline alongside broader risk-on assets and equities,” according to Marcin Kazmierczak, co-founder and chief operating officer of blockchain oracle firm RedStone.Kazmierczak said April’s “Liberation Day tariffs and trucking slowdown could create economic contagion that historically hits speculative assets hardest.” “While crypto’s growing institutional adoption introduces some uncertainty, it’s not enough to overcome the fundamental risk-on classification that still dominates market behavior,” he added.Magazine: Altcoin season to hit in Q2? Mantra’s plan to win trust: Hodler’s Digest, April 13 – 19Source link
You may also like

Key Market Information Discrepancy on March 13th - A Must-See! | Alpha Morning Report
1. Top News: Latest Developments in US-Iran Conflict, Son of Soleimani Vows Revenge, US Navy Plans to Escort Ships in the Strait of Hormuz
2. Token Unlock: $HTM

On-Chain Options Explosion.ActionEvent
Options are becoming the new anchor in the cryptocurrency market.

《Time》 Magazine Names Anthropic as the World's Most Disruptive Company
The most AI-wary company has created the most dangerous AI

Predictions market gains mainstream traction in the US, Canada, Claude launches Chart Interaction feature, What's the English community talking about today?
What Did Foreigners Care About Most in the Last 24 Hours?

500 Million Dollars, 12 Seconds to Zero: How an Aave Transaction Fed Ethereum's "Dark Forest" Food Chain
Spend $154,000 to buy AAVE at market price of only $111

AI Agent needs Crypto, not Crypto needs AI
It is not Crypto that needs AI to survive, but rather AI Agents that need Crypto to be implemented: when AI truly shifts from "thinking" to "executing," it must seek the boundaries of authority and funding within the programmable primitives of Crypto.

Stablecoins are breaking away from cryptocurrency, becoming the next generation of infrastructure for global payments
The use of stablecoins is shifting from facilitating low-cost cross-border remittances to supporting general commercial activities and inter-company vendor payments.

Web3 teams should stop wasting marketing budgets on the X platform
The announcements from the project party are still very important, but they should no longer be the starting point of promotional activities; instead, they should be the endpoint.

Strive buys Strategy stocks, and Bitcoin treasury companies start nesting each other
When everyone's bets are placed on the same table, the difference between "structured financing" and "concentrated gambling" may just be a few more arrows drawn on the PPT.

Strive to buy Strategy stock, Bitcoin Treasury company starts nesting dolls with each other
Bitcoin hodlers are starting to nested be in each other.

Key Market Intel on March 12th, how much did you miss out on?
1. On-chain Funds: $29.7M inflow to Hyperliquid today; $30.9M outflow from Base
2. Biggest Gainers/Losers: $DRV, $LYN
3. Top News: US plans to release 172M barrels of oil to curb prices, on-chain pre-market crude oil gains narrow by 4%

The new center of Crypto
But the market is constantly evolving. By 2026, companies that can adapt to the new environment will survive, while those that continue to rely on the old script may face the fate of elimination.

Former Coinbase CPO's lengthy article: I have regrets, but I still firmly believe in Crypto
People often fantasize that wealth comes from catching every new wave. Sometimes this is true. But more often, wealth comes from riding a real wave and not blindly paddling away every time the water splashes around.

Hormuz Strait Triggers Oil War, Will the Fed Blink with a Rate Cut in June?
Polymarket data shows that the current market is betting a 64% probability of an interest rate cut in June this year, with the probability rising to 81% for September.

After Law Enforcement in the US and the UK Seized Cryptocurrency, ‘Asset Return’ Never Really Happened
The digital assets that should have been returned to the victims have quietly flowed into government treasuries, strategic reserve funds, and law enforcement agencies' operational budgets.

Why Does Everyone Hate AI?
AI and Silicon Valley's PR Crisis

Kyle Samani Returns to Crypto? Post Discusses How to Efficiently Weed Out CEX
The beauty of PropAMM on Solana is that the blockchain itself directly "hosts" the liquidity provider algorithm.

What are the chances of a 5X MOONSHOT for HYPE?
Hyperliquid is building a new growth logic
Key Market Information Discrepancy on March 13th - A Must-See! | Alpha Morning Report
1. Top News: Latest Developments in US-Iran Conflict, Son of Soleimani Vows Revenge, US Navy Plans to Escort Ships in the Strait of Hormuz
2. Token Unlock: $HTM
On-Chain Options Explosion.ActionEvent
Options are becoming the new anchor in the cryptocurrency market.
《Time》 Magazine Names Anthropic as the World's Most Disruptive Company
The most AI-wary company has created the most dangerous AI
Predictions market gains mainstream traction in the US, Canada, Claude launches Chart Interaction feature, What's the English community talking about today?
What Did Foreigners Care About Most in the Last 24 Hours?
500 Million Dollars, 12 Seconds to Zero: How an Aave Transaction Fed Ethereum's "Dark Forest" Food Chain
Spend $154,000 to buy AAVE at market price of only $111
AI Agent needs Crypto, not Crypto needs AI
It is not Crypto that needs AI to survive, but rather AI Agents that need Crypto to be implemented: when AI truly shifts from "thinking" to "executing," it must seek the boundaries of authority and funding within the programmable primitives of Crypto.