CME FedWatch: 82.6% Probability of 25 Basis Point Rate Cut in September

By: theblockbeats.news|2025/08/04 10:22:28

BlockBeats News, August 4th, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is 82.6%, and the probability of rates remaining unchanged is 17.4%.

The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged until October is 4.2%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 33.1%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point cut is 62.7%.

The next two FOMC meeting dates of the Fed are September 17th and October 29th.

Last week, the U.S. added only 73,000 nonfarm payrolls in July, well below expectations, and the data for May and June were significantly revised downward. In addition, Fed Governor Quarles will resign this week, allowing Trump to appoint a favored candidate early. Possibly influenced by the above news, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September by the Fed on CME's "FedWatch" surged, whereas before the nonfarm payroll data, this number was only 41.3%.

-- Price

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