From Rags to Riches to Rags Again: A Deep Dive into the "Four-Year Cycle"

Original Article Title: How We Lose Again and Again
Original Article Author: @hmalviya9, Founder of @dyorcryptoapp
Original Article Translation: zhouzhou, BlockBeats

Editor's Note: The author reflects on their experience in the crypto market, from the excitement of 2017 to the crash of 2018, and onward to the resurgence of new hot trends like NFTs and agents. They point out that the market cycle continuously creates fervor and illusions, leading investors to mistakenly believe they have grasped the pattern, only to still face losses. Emotions drive people to repeat the same mistakes, while the market always moves counter to expectations. The only way to survive is to take profits as much as possible during the upswings and minimize losses during the downturns, which is more challenging than imagined. The market won't change, and the real challenge lies in controlling one's emotions and decisions.

The following is the original content (slightly restructured for better comprehension):

We keep missing out time and time again. When I truly understood Bitcoin's potential in early 2017, it felt like discovering fire in the digital age. It was not just an asset; it was a paradigm shift, a technology that could redefine the essence of money.

A decentralized system, free from government and central bank influence, offering financial sovereignty to anyone willing to participate. This was not just an investment but a revolution. I wished everyone around me could see what I saw.

I crafted a long message and sent it to 100 friends, urging them to buy Bitcoin and sharing a consultation service that could help them increase their Bitcoin holdings. At that time, I had seen some early success in alternative investments, so I thought at least helping everyone double their Bitcoin holdings in a few months would be an easy task. However, my understanding of the market was still at a rudimentary stage, and I did not fully realize how narratives and emotions influenced price movements in such a young market.

I built my market understanding based on limited data at that time. Most of the altcoins launched between 2015-2017 did not have a long trading history. Their price charts looked like an eternal uptrend, and occasional minor pullbacks seemed more like brief pauses before the next surge.

This pattern is intoxicating—buy in, hold, wait, and then watch the asset grow. I gradually formed a concept that the crypto market seemed to be "designed" to always go up. The volatility didn't scare me; I just saw it as a normal part of market operation.

In theory, I thought that enduring these pullbacks should be easy. However, the first major pullback in the second quarter of 2017 completely shattered this illusion. The market didn't just adjust; it collapsed entirely. Most of the popular coins from the first quarter hit almost all-time lows, plummeting by 70%-80%. The ground beneath me seemed to vanish instantly.

Watching my portfolio shrink day by day, the initial excitement turned into panic, and optimism turned into doubt. But I persisted, believing this was just a stage before the next rally. However, the result wasn't a doubling of my Bitcoin holdings but a 70%-80% reduction, and I was back to square one.

Uncertainty started to build up. While Bitcoin surged from $10,000 to $20,000, altcoins struggled to recover. The market sentiment was extremely chaotic—one day it was the "future of money," the next moment, the media declared it "dead." Negative news like China's ban, regulatory crackdowns, and hacking attacks sent shockwaves through the market. My initial belief began to waver—were we really on the brink of a financial revolution, or was this just a destined-to-fail speculative bubble?

Then came January 2018, a month that completely changed my perception of the market. Altcoins didn't just recover; they exploded. TRX surged 100x in a few weeks. Many forgotten projects went on a wild rally, some going up 10x, and some even more dramatically. The market was in a frenzy, and everyone felt like a genius.

The anxiety of the past few months vanished in a single green candle. That's how my perception was reshaped once again—maybe this is just how the market works? Even after a devastating pullback, it always comes back stronger.

It's this belief that created a delusion for us. We all convinced ourselves that this is the new normal, and every dip is just a setup for the next surge. We waited for that green month to return, believing that patience would eventually pay off. But it never did. The market kept falling, and the once thrilling game turned into a long and painful self-awareness—we were trapped by our own expectations. The cycle once again taunted us.

Each cycle brings about extreme fervor, and in the last cycle, this scenario played out once again in the NFT market. We saw three clear one-month cycles, with certain NFT projects seeing a 100x increase in a short period of time. It felt like going back to 2018. Hype, belief, the idea of "this is just the beginning," FOMO—everything is repeating.

When the market kept rising after experiencing two pullbacks, we thought, "Maybe this is the new market norm." So we kept on HODLing, only to once again lose everything. I got burned badly in the NFT market, just like before.

People often say that learning from past mistakes will make you smarter, but the market always finds a way to make you forget. Your brain deceives itself, believing, "This time is different." "I understand the rules now, won't make the same mistake again." But the illusion persists. You think you're in control of everything, you think you've cracked the market code, only to keep yourself in the game longer, and in the end, the market always wins. Over time, you might learn to lose a little less, but you still lose.

Then, history repeats itself once again. This time it's the agents, public sales launching with a 100x instantly, ICOs making a sudden comeback, everything is repeating, just in a different package. Once again, we believe this cycle can continue for a few more weeks or months.

At that moment, we know we're repeating past mistakes, but we still can't control ourselves. You simply can't control your emotions.

Perhaps right now, you're harboring emotional thoughts—feeling like it's all over, with only a few coins expected to keep rising. But the market always operates counter to expectations, it will play the same game again. You may be forced to stay in the arena or forced to leave, and for most retail investors, this may be the only outcome.

In this game, the only way to win is to earn as much as possible while in the arena and minimize missed profits while outside. Easier said than done.

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