Has the Cryptocurrency Four-Year Cycle Died Out?

Original Title: "Has the Four-Year Cycle of Cryptocurrency Come to an End?"

Original Author: Duo Nine YCC, Block unicorn

Has the Four-Year Cycle Come to an End?

In this article, I will answer this question, explain why the past two years have changed everything, and then make a very important suggestion. Let's get started.

What Is the Four-Year Cycle?

This four-year cycle stems from the fundamental principle of Bitcoin. Every four years, Bitcoin's inflation rate is halved. As early as 2012, the first halving event reduced the issuance of new Bitcoin by 50%, decreasing the reward per block from 50 BTC to 25 BTC.

This had a significant impact on Bitcoin's supply-demand equilibrium, especially during the first two halving events in 2012 and 2016. At that time, due to supply failing to keep up with demand, the price of Bitcoin skyrocketed. Other cryptocurrencies (altcoins) also surged as a result.

However, the impact of each new halving event on the price has been diminishing. The most recent Bitcoin halving in 2024 only reduced the issuance of new Bitcoin from 6.25 BTC to 3.12 BTC.

Considering that nearly 95% of Bitcoin is already in circulation (almost 20 million BTC out of 21 million BTC), the future halving events are rapidly becoming less significant in terms of price impact.

The effective methods of a few years ago are no longer applicable today. You can't "print free money" by simply buying any cryptocurrency as in the past. Today, we have new factors that have a more fundamental impact on the crypto cycle than Bitcoin's halving schedule.

It's time to elevate your thinking! The next section will explain in detail.

Why Have the Past Two Years Changed Everything?

The two things that have changed the cryptocurrency space in the past two years are:

· Cryptocurrency ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund) Launch

· Altcoin Inflation

In early 2024, Bitcoin received its first ETF approval. This suddenly opened up the global market for Bitcoin. Now, anyone can include Bitcoin in their retirement investment portfolio, which was previously impossible.

This represents a significant amount of new money flowing into Bitcoin, money that previously did not exist. But there's a catch.

With money flowing into the Bitcoin ETF, this has put buying pressure on the Bitcoin spot price. However, this liquidity never truly left Bitcoin to flow into altcoins because, apart from Ethereum, there are no altcoin ETFs. The demand for an Ethereum ETF has been lackluster so far, totaling only $2.5 billion.

By early 2025, almost all ETF liquidity had flown into Bitcoin, totaling $40 billion, as shown in the chart. No wonder Ethereum has been trailing Bitcoin for years. Most altcoins have too.

This is why over the past two years, everyone has been waiting for the "real" altcoin season, which may actually never come. The altcoin rebound in November 2024 looks feeble compared to previous cycles.

While SOL, XRP, BNB, and TRX have hit new all-time highs, these prices are not far from their previous highs, and most altcoins like Ethereum or ADA have failed to set new all-time highs. This clearly indicates that altcoins are lagging behind Bitcoin.

But why is that?

Altcoin dilution.

Compared to previous cycles, today there are just too many altcoins (in the millions). I discussed this issue in detail in a previous article. In short, the altcoin season has been hijacked by Solana and its meme coins, essentially sucking out all the altcoin liquidity.

Soon after, as Solana's music was playing the loudest, Trump entered the stage in January 2025, crashing the party. This also marked the end of the meme coin season, with most meme coins plummeting 80% to 90% since then.

The funds or liquidity in the cryptocurrency space are limited, now divided among millions of altcoins. Moreover, Bitcoin is taking up an increasingly larger share. Just look at BTC's market dominance, the highest since 2021, exceeding 60%!

Altcoins are in a tough spot. They only make up 40% of the market, and with hundreds of thousands of coins out there, there isn't much left for the altcoin season. If you plan to play the altcoin game, you really need to choose carefully.

This reminds me of an interesting analogy. In tennis, there are two types of matches that players engage in:

· The ones playing the loser's game (Altcoins)

· The ones playing the winner's game (Bitcoin)

In the first scenario, tennis players must strive to minimize errors because simply doing so can help them defeat most error-prone opponents. This is a loser's game because being less of a loser than most makes you a winner.

In the second scenario, tennis players are at the top of the top. Their game is no longer about avoiding mistakes but about skill and emerging as a winner. This is a winner playing a winner's game (top-level players).

In cryptocurrency, if you play the Altcoin game, you are playing a loser's game, where to win, you need to pick an Altcoin that loses less than other coins. However, you can completely ignore this and choose to play the winner's game by buying Bitcoin!

It's time to look at Bitcoin and why, regardless of the four-year cycle narrative, it will continue to win. Based on the past two years, this narrative is no longer relevant.

Why Bitcoin Is Still the King?

At the beginning of the article, I promised to give you some advice.

The goal is to play the winner's game, focusing on Bitcoin. This is your way to long-term success. Limit your exposure to the loser's game (Altcoins) to a manageable level. Otherwise, things could go south quickly.

With that premise, here are 10 reasons why betting on Bitcoin makes you a winner:

· Fiat Currency (USD) Dilution - Central banks can't stop printing fiat currency. Look at Gold; it keeps hitting all-time highs. Bitcoin will do the same in 2024, breaking through that $100,000 resistance. Be patient.

· Inflation - Printing fresh USD out of thin air is easy, but you can't conjure Bitcoin out of nowhere. This makes Bitcoin the hardest money on earth. That's where you store your wealth.

· Quantitative Tightening Is Coming to an End - This means quantitative easing is on the horizon, making fiat currency dilution and inflation inevitable.

· Global Money Supply Hits All-Time High - Not only the US is diluting its citizens' wealth, every country is doing so, just at different speeds. Look at Bitcoin's price in Turkish Lira.

· Gold - Since the end of 2023, its record-breaking price trend seems to have no end in sight. What's better than gold? Bitcoin. Why is everyone buying gold? Because of points 1 through 4. People accepting Bitcoin is just a matter of time.

· Cryptocurrency ETF - Calling them cryptocurrency ETFs is somewhat misleading as 95% of the funds flow into the Bitcoin ETF. This ratio is even more skewed towards BTC than Bitcoin's 60% market dominance.

· Altcoin Dilution - You cannot dilute Bitcoin. You cannot copy-paste it because you cannot replicate its billion-dollar-level security and mining equipment.

· Countries Buying Bitcoin - Look at El Salvador. More and more countries are adding Bitcoin to their sovereign wealth funds.

· US Cryptocurrency Strategic Reserve - This basically means what? It goes without saying.

· You Have No Better Choice - The only reliable currency today is Bitcoin and gold, with the former having a clear advantage.

While the four-year cycle of Bitcoin will continue to exist, its impact on the price is at best negligible. In this sense, that statement no longer exists. However, the reasons to continue buying Bitcoin are stronger than ever.

I can't say the same about altcoins.

This game is getting harder and harder, and over time, picking winners has become a losing game. It is completely opposite to betting on Bitcoin; it's more like betting on the Turkish Lira to protect your wealth. We also know how that ends.

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