Institution: Projected 2030 Forecast Market Annual Revenue to Reach $10 Billion

BlockBeats News, February 25th. According to a report released by the US bank Citizens on Monday, the predicted market annual revenue has surged from around $2 billion in December to over $3 billion currently, with expectations to reach $10 billion by 2030. Analysts point out that the accelerating trading volume, strengthened market structure, and early institutional involvement signal a trajectory that mirrors the early evolution of listed derivatives and digital assets.

The predicted market has rapidly evolved from a niche betting sector to a complex trading platform ecosystem that aggregates real-world event probabilities. Key players include CFTC-regulated Kalshi and Polymarket, which covers the political, sports, and economic sectors, attracting widespread attention from mainstream financial and regulatory institutions.

Analysts believe that asset classes typically follow a path from retail-driven liquidity to professional market makers, eventually leading to institutional capital inflow—the predicted market is evolving along this path. January saw a 40%+ growth in trading volume compared to December, with February maintaining a similar pace. While sports events remain a major liquidity source, the scope is expanding to macro, political, and regulatory events—areas that are more in line with institutional demand.

The predicted market enables investors to hedge against event-specific risks, such as inflation surprises or merger approvals, without relying on proxy instruments like index futures or options, thereby reducing basis risk. By isolating specific outcomes, they provide precise risk transfer mechanisms and real-time capital-weighted probability signals.

Institutional participation is beginning to emerge through data integration, liquidity provision, settlement standards, and regulatory clarity, with direct trading volumes expected to expand as the infrastructure matures. Although current revenue mainly comes from trading, bank analysts anticipate growth opportunities in data, research, and financing services as the ecosystem develops.