Market Betting Powell to Stay Hawkish on Rate Cuts

BlockBeats News, August 22nd, Currency options data shows that bullish sentiment on the U.S. dollar has risen to the highest level in three weeks as traders bet that Powell will not take an overly dovish stance on interest rate cuts. "The possibility of a 25 basis points rate cut in September will be maintained," said Sonja Martens, Director of FX and Currency Policy Research at Deutsche Bank, "but I don't think he will be more aggressive than that."

Martens suggested that Powell may resist pressure from Trump for rate cuts and will "very clearly indicate that he will not take a path that may lack fundamental support due to pressure from the White House." Nick Rees, Head of Macro Research at Monex Europe, said that if the market "overreacts" to any hints from Powell about a possible rate cut in September, it could trigger initial selling of the U.S. dollar, but this situation may be temporary. "Overall, we expect a hawkish tone, which will further strengthen the dollar before the weekend."