Market Downturn: Why Is MKR Bucking the Trend with an Upsurge?

By: blockbeats|2025/02/27 13:45:02

原文标题：The Bull Case for $MKR $SKY
原文作者：Taiki Maeda，HFAResearch CEO
原文编译：ChatGPT

编者按：作者认为，$MKR（现为$SKY）在 2025 年第一季度/第二季度有望表现优异，主要得益于每月 3000 万美元的回购计划、DAI/USDS 供应量接近历史高点、以及即将启动的 SPK farming 带来的增长动力。尽管重新品牌未获市场青睐，但其基本面强劲，加上美国稳定币法案的潜在利好，未来几个月前景积极。

以下为原文内容（为便于阅读理解，原内容有所整编）：

在这篇文章中，我将阐述为何$MKR 将在 2025 年第一季度/第二季度的风险调整后表现超过大多数加密资产。

MKR 看涨理由如下：

· 每月 3000 万美元的回购计划已启动

· 尽管情绪低迷，DAI/USDS 供应量接近历史最高点

· SPK farming 即将开始（资金印钞机）

注：MKR 已重新品牌为$SKY，因此它们实际上是同一代币。DAI 也重新品牌为 USDS。

回购回来了

没错，回购回来了。这次以加速的速度进行。

Market Downturn: Why Is MKR Bucking the Trend with an Upsurge?

在 2 月 24 日执行的提案后，额外的 5500 万美元 USDS 已被 earmarked 用于回购。回购将按每月 3000 万美元的速度进行，或大约每天 100 万美元。

实际上，这个回购可能会更多，因为协议本身是盈利的（每年净收入 1.25 亿美元，即每月 1042 万美元），如下面所示。

考虑到$MKR 当前价格为 1600 美元，3000 万美元的买压将意味着协议将回购约 1.9% 的总供应量。为了给大家一些对比，@MicroStrategy 在过去 4.5 年内购买了比特币供应量的 2%。我认为这个买压及其速度尚未被市场定价。

我们将 2024 年 MKR 表现不佳的主要原因归结于重新品牌，这一举措并未受到市场的欢迎。然而，USDS 实际上已经在增长，最低时曾跌至 45 亿美元。「情绪低迷，基本面向上」为一枚轻仓的币提供了很好的成长叙事机会（有些人可能会称之为被讨厌的反弹）。

SPK 代币上线

Spark，一个拥有 30 亿美元 TVL 的借贷市场及资产管理平台，从 MakerDAO 分拆出来。本文暗示，SPK farming 和 TGE 将在不久后进行，这将为回购火力提供更多助力。

SPK 将是一个「公平发售/农场」代币，你只能通过质押 USDS 或 SKY 来进行 farming（查看经济学细节）。这意味着质押 USDS/SKY 来 farming 的需求可能会增加，从而提高稳定币供应量、收入和利润等指标。

50% 的$SPK 激励将在前两年内分发。如果我们假设其完全稀释估值（FDV）为 10 亿美元，那么有 5 亿美元的价值将分配给 SKY/USDS 质押者，这将为本地代币提供质押收益，并补贴 USDS 的增长，进而推动未来更多的回购。

其他的 SubDAOs/Stars（如 Solana Star、RWA Star 等）也将陆续上线，这将进一步推动未来的回购。

稳定币法案

对于那些没有关注美国监管动态的朋友们，稳定币法案《美国稳定币指导与国家创新建立法案》（GENIUS）旨在为美国支付稳定币的发行和监管创建一个联邦框架。

目前尚不清楚这个法案将惠及哪些玩家（除了 Circle），但如果我们看到 GENIUS 法案形成更强的叙事并引发更多头条新闻，我们认为 MKR 可能会稳步成为稳定币相关项目中的流动性交易者之一，从而为这一叙事提供敞口。虽然这比其他催化剂要弱，但它代表了市场参与者可能愿意增加 MKR 仓位的另一个理由；不难看出，这枚币的需求端可能正在逐渐积累，利好看涨方。

结论

Sky 的重新品牌虽有些失败，但这一点可能已经反映在价格中（从 2024 年 4 月到 2025 年 2 月的下行趋势）。展望未来，基于本文所阐述的理由，我们有充分的理由相信接下来的几个月对 MKR 来说会是积极的。最后，尽管样本量较小，但我们经常看到 MKR 在不确定或震荡的市场环境中表现良好，而这种市场前景在可预见的未来最为可能。

「原文链接」

On March 4, 2026, DDC Enterprise Limited (NYSE American: DDC) today announced preliminary, unaudited full-year financial performance for the year ended December 31, 2025. The company expects to achieve record revenue and record positive adjusted EBITDA, primarily driven by continued growth in its core consumer food business and overall margin improvement. The final audited financial report is expected to be released in mid-April 2026.

2025 Full-Year Financial Highlights

Revenue: Expected to be between $39 million and $41 million, reaching a new company high.

Organic Growth: Excluding the impact of the company's strategic contraction of its U.S. operations, core revenue is expected to grow 11% to 17% year over year.

Gross Profit Margin: Expected to be between 28% and 30%, reflecting continued operational efficiency improvements.

Adjusted EBITDA: The company expects to achieve a positive full-year result in 2025, a significant improvement from a $3.5 million loss in 2024, mainly due to rigorous cost controls and a higher-margin sales mix.

Core Consumer Food Business Performance

In 2025, DDC's core consumer food business maintained strong operational performance.

The company also disclosed Core Consumer Food Business Adjusted EBITDA, a metric that further excludes costs related to its Bitcoin reserve strategy and non-cash fair value adjustments related to its Bitcoin holdings from adjusted EBITDA to more accurately reflect the core business performance.

In 2025, Core Consumer Food Business Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $5.5 million and $6 million.

Bitcoin Reserve Update

In the first half of 2025, DDC initiated a long-term Bitcoin accumulation strategy, holding Bitcoin as its primary reserve asset.

As of December 31, 2025: The company holds 1,183 BTC.

As of February 28, 2026: Holdings increased to 2,118 BTC

Today's additional purchase of 65 BTC brings the company's total holdings to 2,183 BTC

DDC Founder, Chairman, and CEO Norma Chu stated, "We are proud to have closed 2025 with record revenue and positive adjusted EBITDA, demonstrating the steady growth of the company's consumer food business and the ongoing improvement in profitability. We are building a disciplined, growth-oriented food platform and strategically allocating capital to Bitcoin assets with a long-term view, aligning with our core beliefs. We believe that this dual-track model of 'Steady Consumer Business + Strategic Bitcoin Reserve' will help DDC create lasting long-term value for shareholders."

Adjusted EBITDA Definition
For the full year 2025, the company defines "Adjusted EBITDA" (a non-GAAP financial measure) as: Net income / (loss) excluding the following items:· Interest expense· Taxes· Foreign exchange gains/losses· Long-lived asset impairment· Depreciation and amortization· Non-cash fair value changes related to financial instruments (including Bitcoin holdings)· Stock-based compensation

About DDC Enterprise Limited

DDC Enterprise Limited (NYSE: DDC) is actively implementing its corporate Bitcoin Treasury strategy while continuing to strengthen its position as a leading global Asian food platform.

The company has established Bitcoin as a core reserve asset and is executing a prudent, long-oriented accumulation strategy. While expanding its portfolio of food brands, DDC is gradually becoming one of the public company pioneers in integrating Bitcoin into its corporate financial architecture.

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