Market Prediction Startup Reality: It is currently the VC holding the money seeking product stage

Original Author: Tykoo, Paramita Capital Investment Guide

When it comes to predicting the market, for a new asset class, it is currently the stage where VCs are holding money and looking for products.

1. Paradigm wants to invest specifically in a moonshot, axiom, or bonkbot designed for the prediction market, presenting an opportunity similar to GMGN made for the meme era.

2. Boost VC wants to invest in PolyMarket's fund or launch one themselves.

3. YZI Lab was previously focusing on the BNB trading market itself. (Essentially making a difference with GTM)

Previously on @Sea_Bitcoin's show and chatting with @LeotheHorseman, some ideas were briefly mentioned, and I thought of sharing them here:

- In the prediction market, create a DeFi-like play, where I stake my tokens to borrow and lend USDC to further increase the market probability, similar to a play involving flash loans. By using small funds to increase a market's probability, essentially, it is about publicity.

- Enable users to place private bets, similar to exploring the idea of placing anonymous orders on Aster, protecting the privacy of insiders in the prediction market.

- Provide incentives to market creators, such as me proposing a "Hu Chenfeng will open a Twitter account/join the crypto circle by June next year," then have a market created for it, with 1% of the transaction fee going to me.

- Implement social play or provide SDKs to various exchange platforms, essentially having an underlying ability to launch products, engaging customers to drive traffic and frontend through TOBTOC.

- Following the above logic, rebuild various social platforms, such as creating a live streaming platform, which is more internally consistent than pumping.

- Leo also suggested using prediction markets for governance, which I found particularly interesting, selecting leaders and management teams through prediction markets or using real money for DAO governance.

In actuality, entrepreneurship in the prediction market is divided into two main categories: building the market itself and selling the shovel. The former relies primarily on differentiation, while the latter has greater certainty:

The differentiation of building the market itself mainly lies in three aspects,

- The first is the infrastructure layer, where you will see various curves attempting to enter the market without permission, oracle solutions using AI for settlement... and so on.

- The second is GTM (go-to-market) focused on regional markets, such as Europe, America, Russia, etc., each with its own unique focus without geographical constraints.

- The third involves innovation at the product level, introducing various play-to-earn mechanics, such as up-and-down market movements, betting mechanics, hardware wallet integration targeting a specific market, and various gambling-like mini-games. All the aforementioned ideas fall into this category.

Ideas related to selling shovels are generally more grounded and have a higher degree of revenue certainty:

- Following whales' bots, starting with growth within Telegram and gradually evolving into data-oriented tool products.

- Building arbitrage bots across different markets, employing a nof1-like strategy, enabling agents to express opinions, and utilizing a public fundraising/a meme strategy for GTM.

- Selling information products to the financial market, creating positive externalities from predicting market information.

- Additionally, engaging in various "watchdog" activities (predictive markets), targeting different verticals such as football, where there is undoubtedly user demand for data.

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