New York 'Egg on Face' Showdown: Polymarket Opens Shop, Kalshi Issues Vouchers, What's the Big Idea Behind the Scenes?

Original Article Title: "Polymarket Opens in New York, Kalshi Sprinkles $50 Grocery Vouchers, Is the Prediction Market Also Giving Away Eggs?"

Original Article Author: Wenser, Odaily Planet Daily

"Every generation has its own way of getting eggs," and the value of this statement keeps rising!

This time, the prediction market duopoly sparking this egg battle is Kalshi and Polymarket.

To gain more attention before the "American Spring Festival" Super Bowl, the two major platforms recently began their own "ground promotion performance" in unison—Kalshi distributed $50 worth of free food benefits to users in a certain supermarket in New York; Polymarket went even further, launching a meticulously planned "New York's First Free Grocery Store," scheduled to open on February 12. In terms of vying for attention and user base, the billion-dollar valuation prediction market giant chose the most cliché but effective "offline ground promotion" route.

In response to this, we also contacted our New York-based colleague Connie for the first time, and obtained real information about the "Kalshi, Polymarket offline ground promotion" and "how much can $50 buy in New York, USA," to share with our readers.

When Prediction Market Giants Engage in Ground Promotion: Kalshi Does Flash Mobs, Polymarket Opens a Store with One Click

As the top metropolitan area in the United States, New York has become the battleground and focal point for Kalshi and Polymarket, the two prediction market giants.

And around the escalating cost of living pressure in the New York area and even across the United States, Kalshi and Polymarket have come up with trump cards—

On February 3, Kalshi distributed $50 worth of free food benefits to some users at the West Market on 84 Third Avenue in New York for a limited time to attract more users to participate in various real-world event predictions on the platform.

Based on the surrounding "utility pole mini billboards," "supermarket interior KT boards," and other surrounding materials, Kalshi's offline ground promotion this time seemed more like an impromptu "flash mob event," that is, cooperating with local supermarkets to distribute some offline materials in a short period of time, using the "free $50 food giveaway" benefit as bait to attract people to line up to participate and observe the offline event. This point was also verified and confirmed by Connie.

Additionally, it is evident that through this flash mob event, Kalshi hopes to involve more people in prediction markets with bet-able questions such as "Will this year's New York City oil price exceed $3.3," which are relatable, low-barrier, and easy to understand, to achieve branding and user acquisition goals.

Kalshi Co-Branded Flash Sale Eggs Sold Out

Compared to Kalshi's somewhat rough and highly commercial approach, Polymarket's preparations are undoubtedly more thorough.

On February 3, slightly earlier than Kalshi's official announcement, Polymarket officially announced that after months of careful preparation, they plan to open the "first free grocery store in New York" through an offline store lease on February 12 (EST). Additionally, Polymarket has donated $1 million to the Food Bank For New York City to address the "hunger issue" in the area.

Polymarket also released real shots of offline distribution of vegetables such as tomatoes and eggplants, reminiscent of the bygone era of ground promotion on domestic internet platforms, with a strong sense of "Download the APP to receive eggs" and "First recharge to receive a newcomer's gift package."

It is worth mentioning that Polymarket not only emphasizes that "Polymarket's offline store has sufficient supply, no purchase necessary," but also at the end of the tweet calls on everyone to donate to the Food Bank For New York City, encouraging people to take practical action to address the high food costs and the ongoing high cost of living leading to the "hunger problem."

Seeing this scene, it can't help but make me sigh—

False cryptocurrency project ground promotion: hold offline conferences, indulge in seafood meals, promote various false concept tokens;

Real cryptocurrency project ground promotion: distribute vegetables, give away eggs, open offline stores to provide free food, engage in charity and public welfare, and call on people to donate to show love.

Regarding the real purchasing power of the "Free Egg Event" for Kalshi and Polymarket, we also had a detailed discussion with Connie.

$50 Real Purchasing Power in New York, USA: 5 McDonald's Meals, 1.5 Pounds of Beef, or 2 Days of Meals for an Average Person

According to Connie, $50 in New York, USA, can also be considered "quite valuable."

“Buying 0.5 pounds of beef at a local supermarket in New York, USA costs approximately $18, and $50 can buy about 1.5 pounds of beef,” which is enough protein for an adult for three meals in a day. For comparison, the price of one pound of beef in China is only about 30 RMB, equivalent to 1/8 of the cost in New York, USA.

When converted to the well-known "McDonald's Index," the real purchasing power of $50 is also quite impressive—a takeaway order of a cheeseburger combo with 800-1000 calories costs about $10.89, and $50 can buy 5 combos; if you buy a 580-calorie double cheeseburger, it costs only around $7.2. Of course, this price would be considered "sky high" in China. For the same combo meal, the price in China is only about 25-40 RMB, costing only 1/2 of the same food in New York, USA.

In other words, saving a little money, $50 is close to covering an average person's food cost in New York for about 2 days (calculated based on 5-6 meals). According to Connie, Kalshi's event has attracted many Americans to line up to "receive food," and even "the enthusiasm of Americans lining up to receive things is higher than that of Chinese people." Polymarket's "offline free grocery store" event is also estimated to attract a large number of people to line up and participate. Based on the information released by Kalshi and Polymarket, the upfront costs of the two platforms' related events are at least $50,000 to $100,000.

With such a significant investment of manpower and resources, aside from charity and goodwill, Kalshi and Polymarket, the two major prediction market platforms, also have their own "calculations."

The "Business Acumen" Behind Prediction Market Platforms' "Free Egg Giveaway": Influencing Regulatory Agencies with Political Issues

The above food donation activities by Kalshi and Polymarket were not coordinated or communicated with the New York City government, but were voluntary actions by the companies.

However, the external statements and purposes of both are very similar to the "policies" repeatedly emphasized by New York's newly elected mayor, Zohran Mamdani, during his campaign — the latter had proposed "opening public grocery stores in the five administrative regions of New York to lower food prices." Zohran Mamdani pointed out that city-owned grocery stores could reduce rent and operating costs through a non-profit operating model and the use of public property. This plan is currently in the pilot phase, and the final implementation schedule has not yet been determined.

On the other hand, as one of the key states in the United States, New York legislators are actively issuing new bills regarding the prediction market, an emerging industry track. Among them, the "ORACLE Bill" plans to restrict or prohibit New York residents from betting on certain prediction market events and impose stricter restrictions on event-based prediction markets. Another bill plans to require prediction market operators to obtain a license from the state government before operating.

It is evident that some legislators still have various concerns about the prediction market, viewing it as akin to unregulated gambling or more susceptible to insider manipulation.

In view of this, although the New York City mayor does not have direct regulatory authority over the prediction market (note from the author: regulatory authority over prediction market platforms belongs to state and federal governments), Kalshi and Polymarket's actions may also be an indirect attempt to seek regulatory friendliness.

Lastly, regardless of how the actions of the two regarding "egg donation" ultimately impact, we have to acknowledge that the promotion model of Chinese internet platforms may be at least 5-10 years ahead of the Western world.

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