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Polymarket's $7M Prize Pool Misallocated Due to "Attack," Correct Bettors Face Loss
原文标题：《Polymarket 遭遇预言机操控攻击，大户竟可利用票权「颠倒黑白」？》
原文作者：Azuma， Odaily 星球日报
昨日晚间，曾在美国大选期间爆火的预测市场 Polymarket 遭遇了项目创立以来最严重的一次预言机操控攻击，导致一个押注规模超 700 万美元的预测池给出了错误的结果判定，最终押注了正确结果的用户们损失惨重，反而是押注了错误结果的用户们拿走了奖池内的所有资金。
涉事预测池为「乌克兰是否会在四月之前与特朗普达成稀土交易协议」，在现实世界中，美乌双方尚未就该交易达成协定，所以该预测池的判定结果理应为「否」。然而如下图所示，该预测池的判定结果在结算之前意外地转向了「是」，最终造成了这一是非颠倒的局面。
为什么会出现这种情况呢？答案在于 Polymarket 的判定机制上。Polymarket 依赖于预言机 UMA 来进行事件的结果判定，其判定流程如下：
· 结果报告：事件发生后，任何人都可以向 UMA 报告结果。
· 争议窗口：报告提交后会有一个争议期，任何人若认为报告有误均可提出争议。若无人争议，报告结果将被接受；若有争议，UMA 的争议解决机制会决定最终结果。
· 争议解决：UMA 代币持有者需投票决定正确结果，UMA 会对诚实行为进行激励，并对作恶行为进行惩罚。
根据 Polymarket 方面的流程记录，该预测池最终走到了第三步流程，这意味着有人对原始报告的结果提出了争议，所以需要通过 UMA 投票来决定最终结果。
而根据 UMA 方面的最终投票结果，54.6% 的选票无视事实地选择了「是」，强行推动该预测池将最终结果判定为「是」。
而根据 Reddit 用户 @iamtheone 的记录，UMA 投票初期另一个选项「现在下结论还太早」一度占优，但最终阶段有神秘力量向「是」的选项投入了数百万枚 UMA，强行改变了投票结果。
与此同时，UMA 的价格也曾在 3 月 22 日无故暴涨 24% ，随后逐渐回落，或意味着该神秘力量早在数日前便已筹备好了计划。
该 Reddit 用户补充表示，这并不是 Polymarket 之上的首例预言机操控事件，该平台此前已发生多起小额市场操纵（比如将委内瑞拉总统判定为 Edmundo González，声称特朗普对诺克斯堡进行了审计），但本次涉案金额最大，涉事预测池的押注总金额超 700 万美元。
而造成该事件的关键原因在于，Polymarket 赖以做出最终决策的 UMA 投票机制仅对错误投票设置了 0.05% 的惩罚，这使得作恶成本极低，在扭转事实的巨额潜在利润面前，诈骗者有充足的动机去实施预言机操控。
更令人震惊的是，Polymarket 官方人员今晨在 Discord 内发布公告表示，已获悉该意外情况，但无法对用户进行退款。
我们已获悉乌克兰稀土协定预测市场的异常情况。该市场的结算结果与用户预期及我方此前的澄清相悖。由于此次事件不构成系统故障，我们无法进行退款操作。当前情况实属前所未有。我们已与 UMA 团队展开全天候紧急会议，确保此类事件不再发生。这绝非我们想要构建的未来——我们将建立更完善的系统监控机制，制定更明确的规则框架，并优化时效性更强的澄清流程。具体措施将在全面评估后陆续公布。
不难想象，Polymarket 的这一回应很快便遭到了社区的口诛笔伐，原始预测池的下方评论区现已累积了 5554 条评论，大量用户都在抨击 Polymarket 的机制与回应。
作为去年整个加密货币市场最惊艳的项目之一，Polymarket 显然并不缺钱去足额赔付，如此回应势必会损害其市场信誉及社区情感。考虑到当前沸沸扬扬的社区情绪，后续事态能否有转圜余地，Odaily 星球日报将继续实时跟进。
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To improve ad security and matching accuracy, WEEX P2P now allows advertisers to restrict who can trade with their ads based on country or region. Advertisers can select preferred counterparty locations for a safer, smoother trading experience.
I. Overview
When publishing P2P ads, advertisers can now set the following:
Allow only counterparties from selected countries or regions to trade with your ads.
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III. How to get started
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Matches ads with more relevant users
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A1: Their country or region may not be included in your allowlist.
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Q3: Can I edit my published ads?
A3: Yes. You can edit your ad in the "My Ads" list. Changes will take effect immediately after saving.
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I. Overview
When publishing P2P ads, advertisers can now set the following:
Allow only counterparties from selected countries or regions to trade with your ads.
With this feature, you can:
Target specific user groups more precisely.Reduce cross-region trading risks.Improve order matching quality.
II. Applicable scenarios
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Restrict payment methods: Limit orders to users in your country using supported local banks or wallets.Risk control: Avoid trading with users from high-risk regions.Operational strategy: Tailor ads to specific markets.
III. How to get started
On the ad posting page, find "Trading requirements":
Select "Trade with users from selected countries or regions only".Then select the countries or regions to add to the allowlist.Use the search box to quickly find a country or region.Once your settings are complete, submit the ad to apply the restrictions.
When an advertiser enables the "Country/Region Restriction" feature, users who do not meet the criteria will be blocked when placing an order and will see the following prompt:
If you encounter this issue when placing an order as a regular user, try the following solutions.
Choose another ad: Select ads that do not restrict your country/region, or ads that allow users from your location.Show local ads only: Prioritize ads available in the same country as your identity verification.
IV. Benefits
Compared with ads without country/region restrictions, this feature provides the following improvements.
Aspect
Improvement
Trading security
Reduces abnormal orders and fraud risk
Conversion efficiency
Matches ads with more relevant users
Order completion rate
Reduces failures caused by incompatible payment methods
V. FAQ
Q1: Why are some users not able to place orders on my ad?
A1: Their country or region may not be included in your allowlist.
Q2: Can I select multiple countries or regions when setting the restriction?
A2: Yes, multiple selections are supported.
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