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QCP: Geopolitical tensions once again disturb the market, BTC falls back to 74,000 USD
QCP's latest market view states that as controversies surrounding the Iran-related ceasefire agreement resurface, the market's pricing for a de-escalation of the situation has quickly reversed. U.S. crude oil rebounded 8% after a drop last Friday, while crypto assets weakened in tandem, with BTC falling to $74,000 and ETH dipping to around $2,300.
QCP pointed out that the Strait of Hormuz is still closed, and the U.S. is reportedly preparing to engage in a second round of negotiations with Iran in Pakistan, but it remains uncertain whether Iran will participate. Despite the pullback in spot prices, implied volatility is still close to this year's lows, indicating that the market is more inclined to price the duration of the conflict rather than its intensity. The market is also paying attention to Kevin Warsh, who will testify tomorrow on interest rates and the economic outlook before the Senate Banking Committee.
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