Ripple vs Circle: What’s Behind a Possible Bid to Take Over the Mastodon of Stablecoins?
By: incrypted|2025/05/05 20:00:08
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In this arcticle: 1. An Offer That Could be Turned Down 2. Hunting the Giant 3. Not a Shabby Circle 4. What's the Bottom Line? .post-accordion-wrapper .accordion-content { max-height: 0; overflow: hidden; } On April 30, 2025, Bloomberg, citing anonymous sources, reported that Ripple Labs made an offer to acquire Circle Internet Financial, one of the largest players in the stablecoin market and an issuer of USDC. According to the publication, the deal was valued in the range of $4 billion to $5 billion and was rejected.The publication caused a resonance in the crypto community and became a topic of discussion among analysts and market participants. Is it possible that Ripple’s attempt to gain control over Circle is not a desire to take over a competitor, but a strategic move that reveals the company’s ambitions? Incrypted ‘s editorial team investigated the situation and gathered details around this process.An Offer That Could be Turned DownAccording to available information, Ripple allegedly offered to acquire Circle based on a valuation of $4-5 billion. These figures are based on market expectations ahead of Circle ‘s potential IPO and expert opinions. However, all of this did not stop the firm from rejecting the offer.If journalists are to be believed, Circle considered the offer not only undervalued, but inconsistent with its strategic importance and long-term potential. In addition, the USDC issuer has long been considering the possibility of the above-mentioned IPO. Circle has previously attempted to go public. In 2022, it planned to list through a deal with SPAC for up to $9 billion. However, the agreement was not finalized then.In April 2025, the company filed for an IPO with the SEC, targeting a Class A offering on the NYSE. The IPO was to be underwritten by leading investment banks including JPMorgan, Citi and Deutsche Bank, underscoring the strong interest from institutional investors.However, shortly after filing with the SEC, the company decided to postpone going public, according to the WSJ. The reason for this was allegedly the turmoil in the financial markets caused by the U.S. trade war.Two days after Bloomberg’s publication, rumors began circulating online that Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse had raised his bid to $20 billion. However, Incrypted’s fact-checking showed that these reports were based solely on social media posts that were not supported by any evidence.A fake screenshot of a statement from Ripple Labs CTO David Schwartz. Data: @Crypt0Senseii Moreover, a number of major influencers published a screenshot in which Ripple Labs CTO David Schwartz allegedly states the company’s maximum offer of $6 billion. This information is also a fake and, apparently, the firm’s representative did not make such statements.At the time of writing, there is no confirmed information about the new offer, and the companies themselves do not comment on the situation around the rumors of a possible takeover. Hunting the GiantThe attempt to acquire Circle looks like a logical continuation of Ripple’s strategy to strengthen its position in the market of tokenized assets and payment infrastructure. In December 2024, the company launched RLUSD, a dollar-stablecoin backed by fiat reserves and US Treasuries.It runs on both its own XRP Ledger blockchain and the Ethereum network. According to the company’s statement, this expands its scope of use. At the time of writing, Stablecoin has a market capitalization of about $317 million, according to CoinMarketCap.Information regarding the RLUSD stablecoin. Data: CoinMarketCap.While the company considers RLUSD’s launch a success, it still lags significantly behind USDC (capitalization of about $61 billion) and USDT (over $149 billion). With Ripple’s share of global settlement limited and competition for institutional customers intensifying, control of a more mature ecosystem could provide a serious advantage, says crypto lawyer Bill Morgan.“I just believe that the adoption of RLUSD is not happening fast enough to satisfy Ripple’s ambitions. Perhaps RLUSD was part of a strategy to acquire Circle,” he said. Ripple has already shown its penchant for strategic acquisitions. In April 2025, the company announced its intention to buy out brokerage platform Hidden Road for $1.25 billion. According to a press release from the firm, this would provide it with access to traditional liquidity and integration with classic markets.It also has Metaco’s custodial platform, CBDC project for working with government agencies and liquidity and payment routing solutions in its portfolio. There is a possibility that Ripple is ready to move from internal growth to external scaling through mergers, Forbes noted.Not a Shabby Circle As for Circle, the company does not appear to be in need of a takeover by anyone. The USDC issuer is showing solid financials, which strengthens its negotiating position. Based on documents filed with the SEC on Form S-1, the company has $1.68 billion in revenue in 2024. And 99% of that amount is interest income from reserves, which are U.S. Treasury securities and REPO agreements. Despite the decline from 2023 ($267.6 million vs. $155.7 million), Circle remains profitable for the second consecutive year. Positive cash flow from operations totaled $344.6 million, and its available assets at the end of the period reached $45.8 billion.According to the IPO filing, key growth areas for Circle are product diversification (including EURC, USYC and payment APIs). In addition, the company is betting on expanding licenses in various jurisdictions and developing partnerships with major players — Coinbase, Binance, Visa, MoneyGram.At the same time, Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire regularly announces the successful promotion of one or another of the company’s products, be it the CCTP crosschain data transfer protocol or the development of the EURC stablecoin.Circle CEO’s publication on the EURC steiblcoin. Data: @jerallaireJudging by the wording in documents and public statements, Circle has been quite successful in strengthening its market position. The rejection of Ripple’s offer fits logically into this strategy. Instead of teaming up with a competitor, Circle prefers to strengthen its own infrastructure and role in the emerging landscape of digital finance.What’s the Bottom Line?Taking a broader view, Circle is not just a USDC issuer. It is a systemically important player in digital currencies, with a mature customer base, international licenses and established relationships with regulators. For a company like Ripple looking to establish a large-scale presence in digital payments and assets, this acquisition represents strategic value.Buying Circle could tremendously strengthen Ripple’s position as a global provider of settlement infrastructure. Beyond the obvious benefits — over $60 billion in USDC capitalization, $25 trillion in transaction volume — an acquirer could gain control of integration points with major fintechs and Circle’s technology stack.However, merging these companies is typically a lengthy process, where acquisition talks can last for years. And even then, discussions are no guarantee of success when it comes to a billion-dollar deal. In addition, such agreements come with increased regulatory scrutiny, especially in the US and EU. An example of a failed merger attempt here is the case of Galaxy Digital and BitGo for $1.2 billion. The acquisition negotiations lasted almost two years, but in the end did not result in a takeover.In general, we can say that Ripple’s possible attempt to buy Circle is not just a one-off deal, but part of a broader struggle for control over key infrastructure elements of the crypto market. Сообщение Ripple vs Circle: What’s Behind a Possible Bid to Take Over the Mastodon of Stablecoins? появились сначала на INCRYPTED.
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