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The probability of "the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal before May 31" has risen to 68%, up 9% in 24 hours

By: rootdata|2026/04/21 10:42:01
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According to market news, the probability of Polymarket "the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal before May 31" has risen to 68%, up 9% in 24 hours. The event contract rules are as follows: if the International Monetary Fund Portwatch (IMF Portwatch) publishes the number of vessels arriving at the port in the Strait of Hormuz with a 7-day moving average ("vessels arriving") equal to or greater than 60 on any date during the period from market creation to May 31, 2026, then the market will be determined as "yes"; otherwise, it will be determined as "no".

The daily number of vessels arriving at the port includes container ships, bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off ships, general cargo ships, and tankers. Vessels not reported by the IMF Portwatch will not be considered. It is reported that U.S. Vice President Pence will travel to Pakistan for talks with Iran on Tuesday. U.S. President Trump stated in a recent phone interview that Iran "will negotiate" and expressed confidence in the potential talks to be held in Pakistan.

Trump stated that they will negotiate, and if not, they will face unprecedented problems. He also expressed hope that both sides can reach a "fair agreement" and emphasized that Iran will not have nuclear weapons. He further justified military action against Iran by stating there was no choice and claimed that they would ultimately complete the finishing work.

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