They missed out on $2 million because Maduro wasn't going to be home for the holidays
At 2:00 AM local time in Venezuela on Saturday, while President Nicolás Maduro was still deep in the dreams of the New Year holiday, a raid by US Special Forces concluded the battle in just 1 hour and transported Maduro onto a plane to the United States.
This world-shocking "blitz" seemed to come out of nowhere, but on the prediction market leader platform Polymarket, it appeared to have been a cash-out tool for several insiders even before the operation took place.
3 Pentagon Employees "Betting While Working Overtime"
Hours before the operation began, three wallets with no history on Polymarket suddenly started heavily betting on the highly improbable outcome of "Maduro being removed from power by January 31, 2026."
At that time, the mainstream view in the market still believed that Trump would pursue a mild siege strategy to force Maduro to compromise, with the probability of "yes" in this market at only 5%. However, as Maduro was boarded onto the plane, these three mysterious accounts instantly pocketed over $500,000 in profit.
It was only afterwards that everyone began to redefine the purchases made by the three individuals in the hours before the airstrike: only those with reliable intelligence could, within such a precise time window, execute a "dimensionality reduction" with new accounts.
These three insiders are:
0xa72db1749e9ac2379d49a3c12708325ed17febd4, profit $74,982.34;
0x6baf05d193692bb208d616709e27442c910a94c5, profit $145,619.92;
0x31a56e9e690c621ed21de08cb559e9524cdb8ed9, profit $409,882.03.
But the information provided by Polymarket goes far beyond just this.
Maduro's "Flight Delay": US Operation Was Supposed to Take Place 4 Days Earlier
There are two very representative addresses that, although they profited from this action, actually lost a significant amount of money because they knew the information too early.
Like the aforementioned 3 insiders, Chiwawas also made a precise $10,000 bet 3 hours before this airstrike, earning over $70,000 as a result.
However, Chiwawas had actually heavily bet nearly $40,000 on December 26 on the "Maduro being removed from power by 2025" outcome in this market.
Based on his insider status, it can be inferred that he must have received accurate information before placing a large bet. However, unfortunately, the arrest operation that was supposed to take place on December 29th was canceled due to weather conditions. Thunderstorms in the Caribbean region forced the US military to cancel the operation for tactical security reasons.
This point was also confirmed in Trump's latest address: "The airstrike against Maduro was scheduled to take place 4 days ago (i.e., the night of December 29, 2025, to the early morning of the 30th)."
Therefore, since the outcome settled as "no" on the last day of 2025, this transaction, with the arrival of 2026, led to a significant loss in his account.
If everything had gone according to Chiwawas's script, his account should have been settled at a whopping $750,000 on December 30th.
Unfortunately, the weather didn't cooperate. The thunderstorms at sea not only disrupted the US military's planned airstrike but also shattered Chiwawas's dream of making a fortune during the Christmas holiday using military intelligence.
Fortunately, when he learned that the US military would resume the operation in the early hours of January 3rd, he rallied again, recharging his account and placing bets. This final gamble, while unable to make up for the regret of missing out on $750,000, ultimately brought his account's total profit back into positive territory, reaching $34,000.
Chiwawas Address: 0x168b100d7a6620a2f49a455344c2c006eaf1714b
Aside from Chiwawas, another account also missed out on a huge profit due to the weather. Since the end of last month, he has been betting around $20,000 on multiple related outcomes, such as "US-WA conflict occurs within the year" and "Nothing happens: national leader loses power," firmly believing that the US-WA conflict would occur in the remaining days of 2025 and Maduro would fall from power.
If not for the weather impact, he should have welcomed a massive $1.04 million profit on the 30th.
Like Chiwawas, after enduring a huge loss, he bet "US-WA conflict occurs by 2026.1.15" three hours before the airstrike, making a profit of over $40,000.
Conclusion
Only 3 days into 2026, and we have already seen Polymarket emerge not just as a prediction platform, but as an ATM for individuals across industries to leverage their information advantage, exploiting 'alpha' and 'time alpha'.
As Polymarket's visibility continues to grow, who knows what magical insider stories will unfold here this year?
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