This Week's Macro Outlook: Fed Minutes and PCE Data in the Spotlight, Supreme Court May Speak on Trump Tariff Case

BlockBeats News, February 16th, the global market will welcome a "data barrage" week this week. The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the January monetary policy meeting on Thursday at 03:00, and the market will look for more clues about the 2026 rate cut path; Friday at 21:30, the initial estimate of US GDP for the fourth quarter and the core PCE price index will take center stage as the Fed's preferred inflation indicator. If the PCE reading is higher than expected, it may affect the pace of policy easing throughout the year.

On the central bank front, several Federal Reserve officials will speak intensively, the Reserve Bank of Australia will release meeting minutes, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce its interest rate decision. The market generally expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to stand pat, while the Reserve Bank of Australia may emphasize the upside risks to inflation.

In terms of asset performance, gold prices edged down slightly on Monday; the oil market heard news that OPEC+ may resume production increases in April; the trajectory of the US dollar has become a key variable, and if it does not hit a new low or maintains relative strength against the backdrop of an impending tariff ruling. Meanwhile, increased demand for US Treasuries could trigger a new round of asset reallocation.

On the major events front, the Supreme Court of the United States will issue opinions on February 20th, including a ruling on cases related to Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff policy. If the ruling is unfavorable or has a significant impact on relevant tariff measures, it could affect global trade and market sentiment.

On the corporate side, the earnings season is coming to a close. Walmart will announce its fourth-quarter fiscal year performance, with the market focusing on key indicators such as e-commerce growth, AI applications, and tariff impacts, with its guidance potentially having a significant impact on retail and overall market sentiment.