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U.S. CPI Preview: JPMorgan Expects Downside Risks to U.S. Core CPI
BlockBeats News, August 12th. Most analysts expected the U.S. core CPI to increase by 0.3% month-over-month in July, while Jefferies Group forecasted it to be 0.246%, which seemed somewhat unusual. Jefferies stated that prices of furniture, clothing, and recreational items in July are not expected to continue rising; although facing tariff pressure, used car prices remained largely stable, though seasonal adjustments may indicate a slight decline. Meanwhile, Jefferies projected that the overall CPI would increase by 0.172% month-over-month, below the market expectation of 0.2%. Considering rounding of the data, this number may seem insignificantly different, but Jefferies believes that there may be downside risks to the CPI report. Airfares remain an unstable factor, and if the price of basic economy class tickets remains unchanged, seasonal adjustments could still lead to a 2.5% increase in airfare prices. If this scenario does not materialize, the month-over-month growth rate of the overall CPI in July could decline to 0.1%. (FX Street)
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