When Will Bitcoin Surpass Its Previous High? Insights from ChatGPT, Claude, and Gemini

[Block Media Reporter Yang Won-mo] Three major artificial intelligence (AI) models provided somewhat divergent answers regarding the expected timing for Bitcoin to surpass its all-time high of $126,200. Gemini predicted between Q4 2027 and Q1 2028, while Claude suggested December 2027 as a key point. ChatGPT identified Q2 2028 as the most likely timeframe, which is later than the others.

On the 14th, after applying the highest level of reasoning settings (peak price, maximum, extreme high) to Gemini's 'Argon 4', Claude's 'Opus 5.5', and ChatGPT-6's 'Astra', the results indicated that the three models leaned towards the possibility that Bitcoin would not recover its all-time high in the short term but would instead make a serious attempt to challenge it after 2027.

The starting price for Bitcoin analyzed by the three models was approximately $83,000 to $83,600, which is about 34% lower than the all-time high recorded last October, indicating that an additional rise of about 51% to 52% would be necessary to reclaim that peak.

All three models identified the Bitcoin halving cycle, U.S. monetary policy, and institutional investor capital flows as key variables. However, the expected timing varied by several months depending on interpretations of market recovery speed and interest rate trajectories.

AI Comparison of Bitcoin's All-Time High Breakthrough Timing. Produced by Block Media

Claude Points to December 2027, ChatGPT to April-June 2028

The model providing the most specific probability forecast was Claude. Claude suggested that the key timing for Bitcoin to break its all-time high would be around December 2027.

Claude established three scenarios based on the macroeconomic environment and recovery speed, simulating 40,000 price paths for each scenario. The results estimated a cumulative probability of about 5% for a new high within 2026, 33% by the end of June 2027, and 51% by the end of 2027. The probability of breaking through by the end of 2028 increased to about 75%.

Claude analyzed, "Based on past halving cycles, 2028 seems likely, but considering the drop in this bear market and the required rise, a challenge for a new high could be possible from mid-2027." However, reflecting the high-interest environment in the U.S. and geopolitical uncertainties, the central timing was set for the end of 2027.

Gemini provided a relatively broad outlook. In its base scenario, it assessed the likelihood of breaking the all-time high as highest between Q4 2027 and Q1 2028.

Gemini focused on the 'four-year Bitcoin halving cycle' and 'global liquidity expansion'. It explained that the demand from spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and institutional investors supports the market's downside, potentially shortening the recovery period compared to previous bear markets.

However, it noted, "If the U.S. interest rate cuts accelerate and large amounts of capital flow into spot ETFs, a breakthrough of the all-time high could be possible in the first half of 2027." Conversely, it projected that "if high interest rates persist, it could be pushed back to the second half of 2028."

ChatGPT suggested the latest timing among the three models, indicating that the most likely time for Bitcoin to surpass its all-time high would be in Q2 2028 (April to June).

ChatGPT focused on the time it took to recover from past bear market lows to reach the all-time high. After the low in 2018, it took about 24 months, and after the low in 2022, it took about 16 months. Assuming mid-2026 as the low point, the analysis calculated that the main recovery period would be from late 2027 to mid-2028.

Based on this reasoning, ChatGPT evaluated 2027 as a period when market foundations would be established. It suggested that after the high-interest burden eases and institutional investor capital returns, there is a significant possibility that supply and demand conditions will align around the 2028 halving.

AI Comparison of Bitcoin's All-Time High Breakthrough Timing. Produced by Block Media

Despite Different Interest Rate Projections, Conclusions Aligned... ETF Supply and Halving Are Key

The biggest divergence in the models' forecasts stemmed from interpretations of U.S. monetary policy.

Gemini emphasized the likelihood that the effects of global liquidity easing would be fully reflected in the risk asset market after the first half of 2027. In contrast, Claude reflected the important constraints of U.S. interest rate hikes and rising energy prices in 2026. ChatGPT also judged that the high-interest environment could persist until 2027, requiring a longer time for recovery.

Nevertheless, all three models agreed that the inflow of institutional investor capital through spot Bitcoin ETFs would be the key driving force for the next bull market.

Gemini presented the continuous net inflow in spot ETFs over three weeks as a major signal. Claude focused on whether the resistance range of $85,500 to $87,400 would be broken along with trading volume. ChatGPT identified the recovery of $100,000 and sustained net inflows into ETFs for more than 2-3 months as conditions to confirm an upward trend.

The fifth Bitcoin halving, expected in the spring of 2028, was also noted as a common variable. When the halving occurs, the mining reward will decrease from 3.125 BTC per block to 1.5625 BTC. As new supply decreases, if it coincides with a period of increased investment demand, it could create upward pressure.

Editor Kang Na-yeon from Block Media stated, "The forecasts from the three models are close to a market consensus derived from the common framework of halving, interest rates, and ETF supply, and we need to track conditions such as the continuity of ETF inflows to observe market trends."

Editor Kang added, "From an on-chain data perspective, Bitcoin's price has never fallen below the average purchase price of all holders during this bear market, and according to CryptoQuant, the amount of Bitcoin piled up on exchanges has decreased by 130,000 BTC since February, indicating that there is little supply available in the market right now. However, the total supply of stablecoins has stagnated at a low of $306 billion compared to the peak of $323 billion in May, and this figure needs to increase for a challenge to the all-time high to be possible," she concluded.

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