Robinhood earns $160 target from Bernstein on tokenization and Rothera growth

Bernstein has maintained its Outperform rating on Robinhood Markets with a $160 price target, saying the company's crypto business has expanded beyond trading into tokenization and market infrastructure.

Summary

• Bernstein kept its Outperform rating on Robinhood and maintained a $160 price target.
• Robinhood Chain has processed more than $12 billion in DEX volume and over 150 million transactions since launch.
• Rothera has handled more than 3.5 billion contracts and generated $17 million in second quarter revenue.
• Bernstein said tokenized stocks, Robinhood Earn and exchange infrastructure are becoming key drivers of the company's crypto business.

Bernstein said in a note to clients that Robinhood's latest crypto products, including Robinhood Chain, tokenized stocks, Bitstamp and Robinhood Earn, are creating new growth opportunities outside its traditional trading business while supporting its long-term investment case.

Robinhood shares closed at $89.84 on Wednesday, the level Bernstein used in calculating about 78% upside to its unchanged $160 target. The stock later fell 3.6% to close at $86.60 on Thursday, implying roughly 85% upside based on the firm's target price.

Robinhood Chain and tokenized stocks expand crypto business

Among the products highlighted in the report, Bernstein pointed to Robinhood Chain as one of the company's largest crypto initiatives since entering tokenization. According to the brokerage, the blockchain has processed more than $12 billion in decentralized exchange volume and completed over 150 million transactions since launch.

The report also said Robinhood Earn has accumulated more than $200 million in customer deposits. Meanwhile, tokenized U.S. stocks are now available through Robinhood Wallet in more than 120 countries, extending the company's reach beyond its core brokerage platform.

Bernstein said the latest developments continue a strategy Robinhood has been building throughout the year. In June, the firm argued that prediction markets had become one of Robinhood's fastest-growing businesses during the FIFA World Cup, projecting the segment could generate $586 million in revenue in 2026 compared with an estimated $150 million in 2025.

At the time, Bernstein estimated prediction markets could account for about 17% of Robinhood's transaction-based revenue and around 10% of total company revenue next year, supported by higher customer activity during major sporting events.

Rothera continues to scale prediction markets

Attention in the latest report also turned to Rothera, Robinhood's exchange, which Bernstein said has continued expanding since going live in June.

According to the analysts, Rothera has processed more than 3.5 billion contracts so far, including 2.1 billion during the second quarter alone. The exchange generated $17 million in second-quarter revenue and has become the third-largest prediction market exchange in the United States, Bernstein said.

The research note said Robinhood expects more prediction-market activity to migrate onto Rothera over time while continuing to distribute event contracts from third-party exchanges. Bernstein added that management also sees the exchange as a potential business-to-business platform for other Futures Commission Merchants in the future.

The brokerage has previously argued that controlling more of the trading stack allows consumer platforms to retain a larger share of transaction economics. In a June research report, Bernstein said companies across crypto, brokerages and sports betting are increasingly combining brokerage, exchange and clearing functions instead of depending on outside providers.

Bernstein sees infrastructure becoming a competitive advantage

Beyond trading volumes, Bernstein said Robinhood's strategy increasingly resembles a financial infrastructure business rather than a brokerage focused only on crypto transactions.

The analysts grouped Robinhood Chain, Bitstamp, Robinhood Earn and tokenized stocks as complementary products that could diversify revenue over time. The report follows Bernstein's earlier research on Coinbase, where the firm argued the exchange was also expanding beyond crypto trading through tokenized equities, prediction markets, blockchain infrastructure and artificial intelligence tools.

While the companies are pursuing different strategies, Bernstein has consistently argued that digital asset platforms are competing to become broader financial marketplaces by adding infrastructure, custody, tokenization and regulated market products alongside traditional crypto services.

According to the analysts, ownership of exchange infrastructure may become increasingly valuable as companies seek to keep more execution and clearing revenue within their own platforms instead of relying on external providers.

Regulatory uncertainty remains part of the investment case

Despite maintaining its positive outlook, Bernstein outlined several risks that could affect Robinhood's business.

The brokerage said changes affecting payment for order flow remain an important consideration because the model continues to contribute meaningfully to Robinhood's brokerage operations.

Bernstein also noted that U.S. regulation surrounding digital assets continues to evolve. The analysts said the Securities and Exchange Commission has historically taken a strict approach toward crypto trading platforms, while uncertainty over whether certain digital assets should be classified as securities has yet to be fully resolved.

The report added that the digital asset industry remains in an early stage of development, meaning future regulatory decisions could influence the pace at which companies introduce new crypto products and expand tokenization services.

Even with those risks, Bernstein maintained that Robinhood's expanding infrastructure business and growing portfolio of tokenized financial products continue to support its Outperform rating and unchanged $160 price target.