US Midterm Elections: What is the Optimal Outcome for Bitcoin? "Breakthrough of $90,000 or Collapse Below $70,000"

The ideal scenario is a Republican majority in the Senate and a Democratic majority in the House of Representatives.

The probability of Democratic dominance in both chambers is 60%... BTC is precariously above $70,000.

Trump's 'My Way' approach and the failure of clarity... the worst-case scenario.

[Block Media Reporter James Jung] The US midterm elections are just ten days away. The results on November 3 are expected to materialize on the 4th and 5th, significantly impacting the market. So far, the general assessment by US media is that the situation is unfavorable for the Republican Party and President Trump.

The optimal outcome for the digital asset market, including Bitcoin, would be for the Republicans to hold a majority in the Senate while the Democrats hold a majority in the House, splitting congressional power. President Trump is also focusing on maintaining a Republican majority in the Senate.

However, if the so-called Shy MAGA voters who support Trump rally at the last minute, the Republicans could dramatically maintain their majority in both chambers. Polling agencies estimate this probability to be around 5%.

Trump's 'My Way' approach is also a variable. Not acknowledging a defeat in the midterm elections, conducting large-scale airstrikes on Iran, or maintaining strong tariff policies could send shockwaves through the global financial market. For Trump, there is no next election. He has no political reason to be concerned about the midterm results, which may lead him to adopt a stance of "I will go my way until the end of my term."

This political judgment by Trump could represent the worst-case scenario for Bitcoin.

Republican Senate and Democratic House: The Best Combination for Bitcoin

According to Bloomberg's election forecast on the 24th (local time), along with polls from the New York Times, Siena, CBS, Forbes, and analyses from prediction platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, the most likely election outcome is that the Democrats will hold a majority in both chambers.

The possibility of the Republicans retaining the Senate cannot be ignored. The rallying of the Shy MAGA supporters who back Trump is a variable. In competitive areas, if the name "Trump" is marked on the ballot, Trump has never lost an election. The Republicans could effectively declare victory by merely maintaining a majority in the Senate.

So far, polling agencies estimate the probability of election outcomes and the corresponding expected Bitcoin price to range from a minimum of $70,000 to a maximum of $92,000.

Analysis compiled from Bloomberg, New York Times, Siena, CBS, Forbes, prediction platforms Kalshi and Polymarket, and election analysis platform Silver Bulletin. Source: Block Media

If the Republicans dominate the Senate and the Democrats the House, a "relief rally" is expected, with Bitcoin prices projected to rise to the $90,000 mark. Interestingly, even if the Republicans dominate both chambers, Bitcoin prices could actually fall, according to some analyses.

A Republican victory could unleash Trump's rampage. Without any forces to check the president and with no elections ahead, this creates the worst conditions. Airstrikes on Iran, soaring oil prices, and rising bond yields are major negative factors for Bitcoin.

On the other hand, if Trump’s pro-crypto policies are revived and long-standing issues like the clarity bill are resolved, this could act as a massive positive catalyst.

However, the reality is that the likelihood of a Republican defeat is the highest.

Polls Favor Democrats... Shy Trump Variable Remains

The apparent election landscape is unfavorable for the Republicans. According to Bloomberg, the Democrats are expanding their target range to include areas previously dominated by the Republicans. Texas, Iowa, Ohio, and Alaska have emerged as key battlegrounds.

In a New York Times poll, President Donald Trump's approval rating stood at 36%, with a disapproval rating of 59%. 75% of respondents rated the US economic situation as below average or poor.

In national party support surveys, the Democrats were found to be ahead of the Republicans by 7.4 to 8.9 percentage points. In prediction markets, the probability of the Democrats controlling the Senate was assessed at 68%, and the House at 91%.

However, it remains uncertain whether polls will translate into actual election results. The key variable is the so-called Shy Trump supporters. Republican supporters who are not adequately captured in public polls may rally at the last minute.

Especially if polling errors occur in the same direction in several Republican strongholds, the Senate election results could differ significantly from current expectations. There are analyses suggesting that the probability of the Democrats controlling both chambers should be assessed lower than prediction markets. Bloomberg also reported that Republican officials still evaluate the chances of retaining the Senate at over 50%.

Trump's political standing is another variable to watch. Under the US Constitution, Trump, having been elected president twice, cannot run for president again. Therefore, even if he loses in the midterm elections, he has relatively little incentive to significantly alter existing policies in anticipation of the next presidential election.

Rather, he is likely to maintain existing policies such as tax cuts, deregulation, and pro-digital asset policies during his remaining term. This means that even if the Democrats control Congress, policy initiatives utilizing executive power may continue. A Democratic victory in the elections does not necessarily mean the immediate termination of Trump’s administration's digital asset policies.

The Greatest Risk is Airstrikes on Iran... Could Neutralize Election Results

For Bitcoin investors, the greatest risk is the possibility of a US military attack on Iran rather than the election results. If the conflict with Iran escalates, Bitcoin prices could plummet regardless of whether the Republicans or Democrats win.

Reports have surfaced that the US has urgently withdrawn diplomatic and military personnel from the Middle East due to information regarding Iran's preparations for an attack, highlighting geopolitical risks once again. Bitcoin fell to $79,146 during the day as tensions in the Middle East rose.

If airstrikes on Iran resume, there could be simultaneous surges in international oil prices and inflationary pressures. Rising oil prices could reduce the Federal Reserve's (Fed) capacity to lower interest rates and heighten concerns about tightening. If the dollar strengthens and risk assets are sold off, Bitcoin could face significant downward pressure.

If military action against Iran escalates, Brent crude prices could rise to $115-$130 per barrel. If a direct confrontation occurs between the US and Iran, Bitcoin could fall an additional 8-15% beyond the basic forecast. It is difficult to guarantee the maintenance of the $70,000 level.

Especially if the Democrats control both chambers and military conflict escalates, there is a worst-case stress scenario where Bitcoin could fall to between $60,000 and $68,000.

Ultimately, if the November 3 election is the first turning point determining Bitcoin's direction, the situation in Iran could be a larger variable that could overturn that result. After the election, the market will closely monitor movements in US Treasury yields, the dollar, and international oil prices.

The outcome of whether the Republicans retain the Senate in the midterm elections will determine the potential for Bitcoin's rebound, while the likelihood of military action against Iran will influence the sustainability of that rebound.

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