When will the next crypto bull run happen?

Bitcoin has recovered from its summer lows, but investors still face an uncertain start to November as demand improves unevenly and US interest rates remain elevated.
Summary

• Bitcoin price gains during the third quarter have revived hopes of a sustained recovery, although buyers still face selling pressure at higher levels.
• The Federal Reserve kept rates at 3.75% to 4% on October 28, while 2 policymakers favoured another increase.
• ETF inflows, spot buying and gains across major altcoins will help show whether the recovery can last.

Investors heading into November are weighing Bitcoin's recent gains against the selling that could return at higher prices. The next few weeks will help show whether buyers can keep the rally going and whether Ethereum and other major altcoins begin to follow.

JUST IN: Peter Schiff warns Bitcoin could fall to $75,000

The longtime Bitcoin critic cautioned that BTC holders could face a rough weekend, adding fresh bearish sentiment as markets brace for potential volatility. pic.twitter.com/fsYJcoaTX5 --- crypto.news (@cryptodotnews) October 25, 2026

Why is the next bull run still an open question?

Bitcoin investors have already seen a strong rebound this year. What they have yet to see is whether that recovery can survive another period of selling and bring more of the crypto market with it.

That distinction matters as November approaches. A sharp rise can make a market feel bullish long before investors agree that the previous downturn has ended.

Coinbase Research's fourth quarter outlook put Bitcoin's third quarter gain at 43%. It said the outlook had improved, but also noted that many coins had been bought at prices above current levels. Some of those holders could sell as prices recover.

Fidelity's outlook offered another reason for caution. It discussed November as a possible period for a cycle low, while making clear that historical cycles cannot reliably identify when the market will turn.

Those views leave room for several outcomes. The summer low may hold, the recovery may stall before another decline, or prices may spend months in the same range as investors continue to buy and sell.

No single announcement can settle that question. A lasting recovery depends on investors continuing to buy after the first burst of enthusiasm has passed.

The useful question for November is therefore how the market behaves after a rally. Prices that hold their gains through weaker sessions offer a stronger sign of demand than a brief jump followed by an equally fast reversal.

What would make this a crypto bull run?

A bull run usually describes a sustained rise that attracts continuing demand. There is no official threshold that every trader, exchange or research firm uses to declare its beginning.

Some investors focus on Bitcoin's long term trend. Others wait for Ethereum and major altcoins to rise as well, because they want to see whether investors are buying other cryptocurrencies too.

Both approaches can be useful, provided they describe what is actually happening. Bitcoin can enter a strong upward trend while many smaller tokens remain weak.

For holders of those tokens, a Bitcoin rally may offer little relief. Their assets can lose value against BTC even if their dollar prices recover slightly.

A more convincing recovery would see Bitcoin and several major altcoins continue to rise over time. It would also survive periods when traders take profits, rather than rely on uninterrupted daily gains.

The way prices move can help show whether a rally is lasting. If buyers return after each drop and prices stay above their earlier lows, the recovery has more support than a rally that quickly loses all its gains.

Weekly moves can provide a clearer picture than intraday swings. They reduce the temptation to treat every liquidation event or reaction to an economic release as the start of a new cycle.

That does not mean investors need to wait for every token to rise. Thousands of cryptoassets have weak liquidity, inactive development or little reason to regain their previous valuations.

Gains across several major cryptocurrencies tell investors more about the overall market than a few sharp rises in small tokens. A handful of thinly traded assets can double without showing that much new money has entered crypto.

The first stage of a bull run may still look uncertain while it is happening. Confirmation usually arrives after prices have already recovered, which is why attempts to identify the exact starting day often become clearer only in hindsight.

Why does the four year cycle point to November?

The November argument comes from Bitcoin's previous market cycles. Its last major bear market low occurred in November 2022, so a roughly 4 year repetition would place another low around November 2026.

Fidelity discusses that possibility, but also says the low could already have occurred in July or could arrive later. Its assessment gives the calendar a role in the discussion without treating it as a timetable.

The distinction is easy to lose when a cycle chart circulates on social media. A historical resemblance can quickly become a confident prediction that prices must bottom in a particular month.

Markets do not have to follow that schedule. The number of previous Bitcoin cycles is limited, and the conditions surrounding each one have differed.

Access to Bitcoin has changed too. Investors can now use listed spot funds alongside exchanges, while institutions have more custody and trading services available to them.

These channels can alter who buys, when they buy and how quickly they reduce exposure. They do not remove speculation, but they make a simple comparison with an earlier cycle less complete.

A cycle low and the beginning of an obvious bull run are also different events. A market can stop making new lows and then spend a long period trading within a range.

That period can be frustrating for investors expecting an immediate recovery. Early buyers may be correct about the eventual direction while still facing months of weak returns and repeated pullbacks.

November therefore matters as a point of comparison with previous cycles. It does not provide a deadline by which Bitcoin must rise or a guarantee that another decline is nearly over.

The market's response to new buying will be more useful than the calendar alone. If stronger demand repeatedly fails to lift prices, sellers may still have substantial supply to release.

Can ETF inflows help the rally last?

US spot Bitcoin ETFs provide a visible route for investors to add exposure. Their daily subscriptions and redemptions help show whether money is entering or leaving those products.

The Farside flow table allows those changes to be followed across individual funds. Several days of inflows can strengthen the case for demand, particularly when they continue through a market pullback.

One strong session is less informative. Large subscriptions can be followed by redemptions, leaving a week with much less net buying than its biggest daily headline suggested.

Fund trading volume also measures something different from fund flows. Existing ETF shares can change hands repeatedly without the fund adding an equivalent amount of Bitcoin.

For the underlying market, net creations and redemptions are more directly relevant. They show changes in the fund's outstanding shares, although the timing and execution of its Bitcoin transactions can differ.
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Prices do not have to rise every time funds take in money. Other holders may sell into that demand, leaving Bitcoin little changed even while ETF balances grow.

That outcome can still matter. A market absorbing sustained selling without falling may be building support, but that becomes clearer only if buyers keep returning.

Money entering Ethereum and other crypto funds could show that investors are buying more than Bitcoin. However, a smaller dollar inflow can carry more weight for a smaller market, so direct comparisons with Bitcoin need context.

Product launches can complicate the picture further. Seed capital and investors moving from one vehicle to another can create activity without an equivalent increase in their total crypto exposure.

The strongest signal would be continuing net inflows alongside prices that hold higher levels. That combination would suggest that demand is doing more than temporarily offsetting investors who want to leave.

Why does spot buying matter more than a quick squeeze?

A rally can begin when traders who bet against Bitcoin close their positions. Their purchases can push prices higher even if long term investors have not become more willing to buy.

That process can be especially forceful when many leveraged positions are concentrated near the same price. Once liquidations begin, the resulting orders can accelerate the move.

The difficulty comes after those positions have closed. If cash buyers do not follow, the market can lose the demand that produced the initial surge.

Spot trading offers another way to assess the move. Buyers who purchase the asset outright are taking exposure without relying on the same liquidation mechanics as a highly leveraged futures position.

They can still sell quickly, and spot volume alone does not reveal their intentions. It becomes more informative when considered alongside prices, exchange balances and the persistence of demand across several sessions.

CryptoQuant's October 1 demand assessment described an improvement in its apparent demand measure while the reading remained negative. Under that methodology, the market was recovering from weaker demand rather than already showing sustained expansion.

The age of that observation matters. An early October reading helps explain the recovery's background, but it cannot describe every trade made after the Fed's October 28 meeting.

Derivatives data can add context. Rising open interest shows more outstanding contracts, while funding rates help indicate the cost of maintaining certain positions.

Neither measure automatically identifies healthy demand. Dollar denominated open interest can rise because the asset's price rises, and every futures contract has both a buyer and a seller.

A recovery supported by continuing spot purchases would be less dependent on traders adding leverage. That would not prevent a correction, but it would give the rally another source of demand once a squeeze ends.

What does the Fed decision mean for November?

TheFederal Reserve kept its target rate at 3.75% to 4% on October 28. The decision passed by 10 votes to 2, with Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack preferring a quarter point increase.

The committee described inflation as elevated. Its statement gave investors no commitment to an immediate rate cut.

That leaves crypto entering November without a clear promise of cheaper money. Investors still need to weigh inflation, economic activity and the returns available from assets that carry less price volatility.

Higher interest rates can affect that choice. When cash and government debt offer an attractive yield, investors may demand a stronger reason to hold speculative assets.

Bitcoin can still rise in that environment. Its buyers may respond to fund demand, changes in positioning or developments specific to the asset rather than wait for a policy cut.

Market expectations also matter. A decision to hold rates can be welcomed if traders had feared an increase, even though the absolute level remains restrictive.

The reverse is possible too. A pause can disappoint investors who had already positioned for easier policy.

Subsequent inflation and employment releases will influence those expectations. Treasury yields and the dollar can then show how investors interpret the new information, although neither determines Bitcoin's direction on its own.

The next bull run does not require a particular Fed meeting to mark its beginning. It does require enough willing buyers to sustain demand under the conditions that actually exist.

That is why a rate decision and a market recovery should be considered together without treating one as proof of the other. A favourable policy reaction can start a rally, but continued buying determines whether the move lasts beyond the announcement.

BREAKING: Fed raises its benchmark interest rates for the first time since 2023

The Fed has raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%--4%, while 30-year mortgage rates have climbed to around 7.28%; persistent inflation, higher oil prices and geopolitical tensions are... pic.twitter.com/CXNUmqJqEf --- crypto.news (@cryptodotnews) September 16, 2026

Where could the recovery meet selling pressure?

Investors who bought at higher prices can become an important source of supply during a rebound. Some may use the recovery to reduce losses or exit near their original purchase price.

Coinbase's quarterly research identified about 1.7 million BTC that last moved between $89,600 and $93,700. That concentration suggests an area where sellers could become more active if Bitcoin returns to it.

It does not create a fixed ceiling. Coins moving onchain are not a complete record of every investor's cost basis, and holders do not all respond to a price level in the same way.

Some may hold for further gains. Others may sell below their purchase price, while new buyers may be willing to absorb whatever supply reaches the market.

The important response is therefore what happens around the range. A brief move above resistance followed by heavy selling would tell a different story from several weeks of trading comfortably above it.

Volume can help explain that difference. Strong turnover without much of a price rise can indicate that buyers are meeting substantial supply, while a low volume breakout may be vulnerable if demand fades.

Investors also watch the previous all time high, but a bull run can begin before prices return to that level. By the time Bitcoin sets a new record, it may already have been rising for months.

Conversely, an isolated Bitcoin record would not prove that all major altcoins had entered a comparable cycle. Different assets can have very different supply pressures and sources of demand.

Token unlocks make that especially relevant outside Bitcoin. New supply becoming available to investors or contributors can offset improving sentiment in the overall market.

The next recovery may therefore reward assets unevenly. A market that rises overall can still contain projects whose supply or weakening demand prevents them from following the leaders.

How can investors tell whether altcoins are joining?

Bitcoin dominance is often used to judge whether money is moving towards altcoins. The measure compares Bitcoin's market value with the total value of the assets included by a market tracker.

A falling reading can suggest that other assets are gaining ground. However, the reason for the change needs to be considered before it is called an altcoin season.

Stablecoins are part of many total market calculations. If their supply grows while Bitcoin and altcoin prices stay unchanged, Bitcoin's share of the total can fall without a rotation into riskier tokens.

CoinGecko's global charts provide separate information on the overall market and major categories. Excluding stablecoins can make it easier to see whether the value of assets exposed to price risk is actually rising.

Even that does not answer everything. One large altcoin can lift the aggregate while many smaller markets remain weak.

A fixed group of liquid assets offers another comparison. If most of those coins keep rising over several weeks, investors have more reason to believe the recovery extends beyond one or 2 tokens.

Dollar performance and performance against Bitcoin also need to be separated. An altcoin can rise in dollars while losing value relative to BTC, which means Bitcoin holders would have done better over the same period.

Trading conditions matter alongside returns. Deeper order books and activity across several established venues make it easier to buy and sell during a rally than when a token has few buyers or sellers.

Network activity can provide additional context, particularly where users pay fees or borrow and trade without depending entirely on incentives. However, activity does not always create demand for the associated token.

A rally across the crypto market would be easier to recognise if prices, trading activity and demand improved together. Until then, the recovery can be described more accurately asset by asset, with Bitcoin strength separated from the performance of the rest of crypto.

So when could the next crypto bull run begin?

The available evidence does not point to a reliable starting date. November is relevant to the cycle discussion, but the recovery could develop before investors agree on what to call it.

The more encouraging outcome would involve Bitcoin holding higher levels through pullbacks, continuing fund demand and gains across several major altcoins. That would show buyers returning for more than a brief reaction to one event.

A weaker outcome would involve repeated failed rallies, renewed fund redemptions and spot demand that struggles to absorb selling. In that situation, a strong quarter would remain a recovery within an unsettled market.

There is also a slower possibility. Prices could spend months within a range while different groups of investors exchange coins, without either a new collapse or an obvious bull run.

That would make the market less dramatic than a firm prediction suggests. It would still provide information about where buyers are willing to hold and where sellers continue to take profits.

For now, the strongest case for optimism is that Bitcoin has already recovered substantially from its weaker period. The strongest reason for caution is that a rebound does not establish how much demand remains once prices move higher.

November's answer will come from those buyers and sellers. The calendar can explain why investors are watching, but it cannot make them keep buying.

What to watch

• Bitcoin's weekly closes and spot buying: Watch where Bitcoin finishes each week and whether buyers return when the price falls. A rally is more likely to last if each drop stops above the previous low and Bitcoin then recovers those losses. Spot buying matters here too. If investors continue to buy Bitcoin outright after the first jump, the rally has a source of demand beyond traders closing bets against the price.
• Weekly ETF inflows and outflows: Look at the full week's ETF inflows and outflows rather than just the largest daily figure. A strong day can make demand look better than it is if investors withdraw a similar amount later in the week. Several weeks of net inflows would show that money is continuing to enter the funds. Compare that with Bitcoin's price, because heavy selling from other holders can limit gains even when ETFs attract new investment.
• Major altcoin performance: Watch whether several major altcoins keep rising alongside Bitcoin, rather than focus on a sudden jump in one small token. Gains that last through market drops would offer more evidence that investors are returning to other parts of crypto. Compare those coins with both the dollar and Bitcoin. A token can rise in dollars while still falling against BTC, and a lower Bitcoin dominance figure alone does not prove that altcoins are rallying.
• Inflation, jobs and Fed expectations: US inflation and employment reports can change expectations for the Fed's next decision. Those expectations can affect Treasury yields, the dollar and how willing investors are to buy crypto. Watch how Bitcoin responds after the initial reaction to each release. A quick price jump may fade, while gains that hold over the following days would show that buying continued after the news.

FAQ

When will the next crypto bull run happen?

There is no reliable date for the next crypto bull run. Previous Bitcoin cycles have drawn attention to November 2026, but the market does not have to follow the same schedule this time.

A stronger case would emerge if Bitcoin kept its gains after price drops, ETF inflows continued and major altcoins began to rise consistently. Those changes could develop over several months before investors agree that a new bull run has started.

Is Bitcoin's recovery enough to call a bull run?

Bitcoin can have its own bull run while Ethereum and other major altcoins remain weak. A strong Bitcoin rally therefore does not automatically mean that the whole crypto market is recovering.

To judge whether the rally extends across crypto, look at whether several major coins are rising and keeping those gains over time. A short jump in a few small tokens would offer much less evidence that investors are returning to the rest of the market.

Do ETF inflows guarantee higher prices?

No. ETF inflows show that money is entering those funds, but other Bitcoin holders may sell enough to offset that buying. The price can stay flat or fall even during a period of net inflows.

Several weeks of inflows are more useful than one strong day because they show whether demand is continuing. Prices that hold their gains alongside those inflows would give investors more reason to believe the buying can support a lasting rally.

Why does spot buying matter?

Spot buying means purchasing Bitcoin or another cryptocurrency outright. It can help a rally continue after traders who bet against the price have closed their positions and the buying from those trades has ended.

A rally driven mainly by forced liquidations can lose momentum once that activity stops. Continued spot purchases would show that buyers are still willing to enter at higher prices, although those buyers can also sell and no type of demand guarantees further gains.

Must Bitcoin reach a record high first?

No. A bull run can start while Bitcoin is still below its previous all time high. The price may rise for months before it returns to that record, so waiting for a new high would miss the early part of the rally.

What matters is whether Bitcoin continues to rise over time and holds enough of its gains during price drops. A brief move to a new high followed by a sharp fall would provide less evidence of a lasting recovery than a steady rally supported by continued buying.

Can the Fed trigger a bull run?

A Fed decision can help start a rally if it makes investors more willing to buy crypto. Lower rates, or expectations of lower rates, can make assets such as Bitcoin more attractive compared with cash and government debt.

That reaction does not guarantee a bull run. Investors may already have expected the decision, and a rate cut prompted by economic weakness could also raise concerns about growth. The rally would still need continued buying after the announcement.

What does Bitcoin dominance show?

Bitcoin dominance shows Bitcoin's share of the total crypto market value measured by a data provider. A rising figure means Bitcoin accounts for a larger share of that total, while a falling figure means its share has become smaller.

A fall does not necessarily mean investors are buying altcoins. Stablecoin supply can affect the calculation, so investors should also check whether major altcoin prices are actually rising and whether they are gaining against Bitcoin.

What would weaken the November outlook?

Repeated rallies that quickly lose their gains would make the recovery look less convincing. Continued ETF withdrawals, weak spot buying and further losses across major altcoins would also suggest that demand is struggling to keep up with selling.

Unexpectedly high inflation or stronger expectations of another rate increase could add pressure. No single reading would settle the outlook, but several of these developments together would weaken the case for a lasting rally in November.

Disclaimer: This article is for information and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Figures reflect regulatory filings and reporting available at the time of writing and change with each disclosure. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or asset. Always do your own research. Information is accurate as of October 29, 2026.